PIPELINE BATTLE Heating Up | Carney's Bold Move Changes Everything - Episode #147

Welcome to Tav's Headline News Reviews! 

Discover the groundbreaking pipeline deal between Carney and Alberta that's poised to revolutionize the industry by 2027. This monumental agreement has the potential to reshape the economic landscape, creating new opportunities and challenges for stakeholders. Get the inside scoop on what this deal entails, its potential impact, and what it means for the future of the industry. Learn about the key players, the negotiations, and the expected outcomes. Stay ahead of the curve and find out how this pipeline deal will change everything by 2027.

Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share your thoughts in the comments!

My YOUTUBE CHANNEL LINK:
https://www.youtube.com/@TavsHeadlineNewsReviews

MY PODCAST LINK:
https://tavsheadlinenewsreviews.buzzsprout.com

My TWITTER/X LINK:
https://x.com/TavsNewsReviews

My FACEBOOK LINK:
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61576891084536

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:08

Thanks for joining us on Sunday, May the 17th, 2026. Well, there's been a lot of talk and whispers regarding the MLU in Alberta with the federal government. Well, now this week we had some major news come out of Alberta. Canada may be heading into its biggest pipeline battle in years. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta's Premier Daniel Smith have struck in an energy deal that could open the door to a new West Coast oil pipeline. The target date is aggressive, though. Alberta says design and construction could start as early as September 1st, 2027. September 1st, 2027. The project could move roughly one million barrels of oil per day from Alberta to British Columbia. The potential intake by Canada is greater access to the Asian markets with this new pipeline. So what just happened this past week? Well, on May 15th, Prime Minister Kearney and Premier Daniel Smith of Alberta announced a deal to focus on the industrial carbon pricing. And that was the one sticking point for any any kind of future energy infrastructure being built in Alberta. Alberta and Ottawa says the deal is part of the pathways advancement towards a new pipeline to the coast. Alberta wants to submit the project to the major project's office by July 1st. Now, Alberta is saying that they are going to be the finance or funders of this new pipeline initially. The goal is to have it declared as a project of national interest by October the 5th. So you can see what's happening here. The province of Alberta is going to back the construction or the proposed construction of this new pipeline so that it hits the target of October the 1st, 2026, so that it can be designated a project of national interest. And that there's all kinds of implications around that. This would be a major shift for Canada's energy debate because the federal government is now help helping create a process for a new oil pipeline to go to the coast instead of simply meeting the proposal the private industry. I have a couple of news articles upon the uh just confirming what we're saying. There's a picture in the middle of the Prime Minister and the Premier signing this new agreement. On the left is a CBC report. Party Smith reaches an energy agreement that could see pipeline construction starting on May 27. The Financial Times also reporting Marcarney strikes a deal over a new Canadian pipeline. So the word is that you know that the media is covering this and it's it's a real deal. It's a real pipeline. And now just the target dates and the conditions that have been outlined in the agreement that was signed are met. So I want you to understand what's taken place as far as the dollars and how it impacts the pipeline industry. The deal is not just of pipelines, it's about the carbon pricing, the carbon tax. If you remember, Prime Minister Carney dropped the carbon tax as soon as he became Prime Minister. It was a promise he made during the election. But what he left behind was the industrial slash retail, I guess industrial carbon tax, which has a major impact on the industrial base or the energy industrial base of Canada. Alberta's industrial carbon tax system would move towards a higher carbon credit pricing over time. So what they're doing is they're taking the the actual full cost of the carbon tax, they're extending it out further out to 2040. So every year the increase would be less, giving the oil industry more money in the billions and the hundreds of billions of dollars. So instead of paying the carbon tax if they were to proceed with any kind of project, they would pay less and therefore have more money to invest in pipelines. The political trade-off is clear. Alberta gets a possible pathway to a new pipeline. Ottawa gets a stronger industrial carbon pricing, more certainty. Oil companies are expected to invest more in emissions reduction, which is part of the agreement. It's emissions reduction before the pipeline, or there's no deal. And I did a whole episode, and you can watch that episode right up here on the carbon capture emissions that was being proposed. That's still a go, and that's still a condition under the agreement. This is why the deal is being sold as both an economic development and climate compromise. I got two articles on the screen, one from the Wall Street Journal. Basically, Canada, Alberta finalizes a carbon tax deal, sets the stage for a new pipeline proposal. Because now they they stretched out the increases on the carbon tax to 2040. And we'll talk more about that, making it easier for possibly more investment and the ability to build the pipeline. This is an article from now that I got right off the website, the government website talking about unlocking Canada's potential. Alberta government is prepared for a submission of a world-class indigenous co-owner pipeline to the West Coast of British Columbia. And that's that October 1st deadline that Premier Daniel Smith is trying to achieve. I just want to make sure that you all have a clear understanding of what this carbon tax deal is all about and how it has an impact on the oil industry. So I made a note. So the original cost per ton is $170 per ton of emissions, but the threshold date or year is 2030. Now with this deal, that $170 per ton is now going down to $130 per ton, and they're extending the target date of the maximum cost to 2040. So I want you to think of it as a loan or whether it's a car loan or a mortgage on a house. It's basically they're taking your monthly payment that you were amortized over 30 years to now 40 years. So you're going to pay less, potentially save more, but your amortization has been extended by an extra 10 years. So that's how that those hundreds of billions of dollars the industry is going to get. Plus, it reduces the cost per ton to the industry, which gives them more flexibility for expansion. And don't forget the carbon tax, the carbon emissions recovery emissions program, that's still in play. And I did that episode on that for you to take a look at, which I mentioned previously. And I did talk about the second pipeline. I told you in that episode that that second pipeline was going to happen. And I talked about down on this episode here, where I said that the federal government was favoring the southern approach versus the northern approach for a new pipeline. And it was going to be in parallel with the pipeline that goes down to Vancouver. Here's the impact here on the screen with the new pipeline. 2027 September is as early as construction. We'll start expansion of 1 million barrels of oil per day. And if you look at the Keystone revival that President Trump signed to extend it to the border, all that abandoned infrastructure of Keystone. And we already have a pipeline from that Keystone project at the border. If we tie into that, I did tell you that the estimation was 500,000 barrels a day, along with 1 million barrels off this pipeline. And you do the math, and that's a lot of money. The pipeline is to reach new markets in Asia, and it's on pace to double energy production by 2030, especially if you add another 500,000 barrels off of the Keystone pipeline. If it all comes together, it's going to be a major uh project and will definitely do something to our GDP and uh put us on a pathway to energy independence and um definitely bring more money into the country and will be very beneficial for our economy. So why Alberta wants the pipeline is pretty obvious with everything that I just said. Alberta has long argued that Canada relies too heavy on the United States as its main buyer of Canadian oil. And I know you're gonna say the Keystone connection is gonna make us more reliable. Not really if we're building another pipeline to the coast by 2027. I think that combination and there might be a new president, a different ideology. You never know what could happen. So it's keep moving forward, keep building uh our industrial base, especially in the oil sector in Alberta. Well, when Alberta's oil has limited access to the global market and only can sell it to the U.S., that is not a good thing. So this is all leveraging us so that we can leverage our industry to get it out to the market. Alberta's argument is simple more exports, better pricing for Canadian oil, more investment, because now we're reducing the carbon tax. But don't forget, emissions capture is still in play, and that will still have to be built and operational. And it's gonna mean more revenue for the entire country, which is good for all of us. And this is why Premier Daniel Smith has been fighting for this, and she's framing the deal as a major step towards long-term energy security, economic independence, and I agree with her 100%. So, why is this important to the federal government and in particular Prime Minister Carney? Well, Prime Minister Kearney, this is a major political gamble for him. His government is trying to balance three difficult goals. First, keeping Alberta inside national economic strategy, reducing Canada's independence on the United States market, and maintaining some credibility on climate policy. Now, there's a lot of people sitting in Prime Minister Kearney's government that are progressives. I've talked about this in the past as to why he he uh won the election. And there's a lot of ministers and cabinet members that have that came back, came from the Trudeau administration, and they were Prime Minister Trudeau, what's more socialist, means more left, the center, and he still has those people in place. And they're not gonna be happy with it. So it's gonna be interesting to see how much noise they want to make. If they make too much noise, look for Prime Minister Carney to do a cabinet shuffle to root out some of these people that are not with them. The timing is important because Canada is facing trade uncertainty, tariff pressures, the questions about whether it can build major projects quickly. That's been a position of Pierre Polyev and the Conservative Party that it plans, plans, plans, meetings, meetings, meetings, but there are no shovels in the ground. Well, I think there's an urgency now to get a shovel in the ground by the Prime Minister to show Canadians that we are moving forward with these plans and processes to ensure that we get our economy to where we want it to be. Prime Minister Carney appears to be sending a message with this that Canada can still be an energy exporter and will do everything that the federal government can do to make sure that we reach that goal. And he's not going to allow the environmental restrictions to get in the way of that. Um, as he says, we'll come back to that, we'll try to balance it, we'll try to tighten things up, but we cannot sacrifice our economy for environmental issues that are getting in the way of us building these big projects. So that's the message he's sending with this deal. And uh I have an article on the screen from CBC News, Ottawa plans to green light, Alberta's oil pipeline construction by the fall 2027. No private proponent yet. But the Alberta government says they're going to be the private proponent to get the project approved. But I think there is going to be now that there's been a change to the carbon tax reduction in it, and we're going to get the carbon emissions capture program going, which I talked about this episode here, if you want to review it. That's that's a condition under the agreement. It's it's carbon capture, then oil pipeline. So everything needs to come together at the same time. Definitely there's some challenges. Number one, consultation with the First Nations. They're not too um in on this whole thing. Uh very concerned as to where the pipeline is going to run. That's why I say that the the episode I did on the southern approach to Ferrogobin is already established, and it would be a parallel pipeline built next to an existing one. So that would be a lot easier than trying to go some other route because then we're going out, we're going to have issues with environmental groups and First Nations. And more importantly, the province of British Columbia. The biggest political obstacle may be um British Columbia. A pipeline to the BC coast could run directly into opposition. Again, there'll be environmental risks, coastal protection, that tanker ban, they'll have to, I know, curb it back, cut it back, curve it. Uh, I don't know, but they're gonna have to do something if they're gonna put another oil because there'll be more ships, more tankers, more activity on the coast there. The premier David Eby has already proposed efforts to remove uh the uh uh sense to the removal of the tanker ban. He's he's definitely not for it. He's he's he's made that quite clear many times on in uh the interviews that he's had. This create could create a federal provincial showdown between the uh Mr. Kearney and the uh British Columbia. Alberta wants uh tide water access, so wants free access to the coast. Ottawa wants national interest projects to be built. Now, that quote unquote national interest projects. When a project is designated in the interest of the national interest, that sort of implies that nothing can stand in the way of it. No First Nations, nobody remember, but that was the law that Prime Minister Kearney passed in the beginning of his administration, I think it was C5, which gives the Prime Minister and the federal government the power to circumvent any kind of restrictions to get a project built. That means everyone. So, and even if you take it to the Supreme Court, that's not going to change. He has that authority and that power. The tanker ban, same thing. If the prime minister decides that he's gonna get rid of that tanker ban or or reduce it, he he has that power to do this. So this is where the story could turn from energy deal into a constitutional and regional conflict because there's going to be legal action to try to stop this pipeline for sure. I have an article again, once again, from when the Calgary Herald just confirming that there was an agreement in place. But what is the uh industry's reaction? Well, first of all, they're very happy with the reduction of the carbon tax or to extend it to 2040. Uh, you might expect oil companies to welcome the pipeline deal, but the reaction I think is more complicated than that. I read a Reuters report that some industry players are worried that the carbon pricing changes could make Alberta less competitive, especially compared to the United States, which does not have any national carbon tax. Uh, the oil sector wants more export capacity, and that could be achieved if we do the Keystone and this pipeline at the same time. Don't forget, the existing pipeline that goes into Vancouver from Edmonton, that I think is only at 85 or 80% capacity, is what I read. But that could be an issue of tankers, how many tankers they can fill up with the restriction and the area that they're able to dock in. It's it's a very prohibited area there, that area right there. A carbon capture is another issue, and I told you about this episode here that you can take a look at that I talked about the carbon capture program. That has to be built. Someone's got to pay for it. Uh the deal links the this deal now links the pipeline progress to emissions reduction investment, including projects like pathway carbon capture. So there is no pipeline unless the pathways carbon capture system is built as well. But carbon capture is very expensive, and you can hear that on that episode. Uh companies have been cautious about uh committing unless the economics are uh favorable and that the situation is stable and clear as far as uh the political will to move forward with another pipeline. So that is the situation from what the industry is saying. So what happens next? What should we be looking for? Well, there's four key dates that we should be looking out for, and I wrote them down. The first one is the July 1st, 2025. Or this target to submit the project to the major projects office. So we need to hear something. The best project, this new pipeline, and the carbon capture in some way, has been submitted to the major projects office for review and approval. The next target date is October 1st, 2026. It's the date that the project should be designated as a project of national interest, will which will set people's a lot of people that are opposed to the pipeline, their air on fire. And that's when when things are going to sort of heat up. Uh, and then 2020, uh, 826 through 2027, Indigenous First Nations a consultation, a verification of the route that's being planned for the pipeline, and there'll be some regulatory review and political negotiations. But let's keep in mind that if the project is designated in the national interest, a lot of that is just more, it's just fanfare. Just uh uh go look, smoke, the project's gonna go ahead if it's designated as in the national interest. Uh, September 1st, 2027. Well, that's the date that things go from design, planning, arguments to actually shovels on the ground. So that's September 1st, 2027. Most important date is the October 1st, 2026, which will supposedly designate the project as a project of national interest. The project still needs a clear proponent, a private investor. They call it a proponent, private investor. And I think the Premier Daniel Smith has some cards in her pocket that she wants to play. I think right now she wants to get see how committed the federal government is to the project. And I think the private investors that she may be talking to are waiting for to see clear action by the federal government. This is a good first step. But she wants to get this project designated in the national interest. She does that. You're going to see a um private investor company uh purpose and announced. So uh I think it's I think it's good for Alberta. So she quashes or at least uh alleviates some of the concerns that the separatists have and lessens that situation because now one of their arguments was that the federal government was alienating Alberta and not allowing it to expand its energy base. Well, that's that's now sort of this goes through. That is gonna circumvent their argument. My closing arguments and my takeaway is the deal could become one of the defining political fights for Prime Minister Kearney and the Liberal government. Alberta sees it as a breakthrough, definitely Premier Daniel Smith, which I believe is a future leader for the Conservative Party, and she should run for Prime Minister. She's shown that she takes something and she fights for it, and she keeps working hard to get to the goal that she's set out. And I think Pierre Poliev, the leader of the Conservative Party, should get behind this whole thing and praise Premier Daniel Smith. Where is he? Why isn't he there? Why isn't he doing a photo op with uh Premier Daniel Smith? I have no idea. Ottawa sees it as a national building project tied to climate policy. I don't know. I don't know if he if that's the way a lot of people are gonna look at it. They're gonna see it. The the environmentalists outside of the government and in cabinet in the Liberal Party are gonna see this as a betrayal from what Prime Minister Trudeau was trying to do and abandoning their principles. And it's gonna be interesting to see how much heat those individuals make for the Prime Minister, how much resistance they're willing to put up to indicate that they're dissatisfied with this whole thing, who might see somebody resigning from from the government. So we don't we don't know how British Columbia and environmental groups, this is a major threat. They're not happy, they're gonna fight it, they're gonna you know call everybody and get protests going or legal action, they're gonna try and watch this or uh extinguish it and get rid of it. But I don't think it's going anywhere. I think this is something that's very important for the Prime Minister to show Canadians that he's serious about getting big projects done. And he needs this this project for uh stability with Alberta, the province of Alberta. Indigenous first uh First Nations, they're not gonna be happy about it, they're gonna join the opposition forces out of BC and the environmental groups. Um but the key question now is this, which I wrote down Is Canada finally ready to build another major oil pipeline? Well, they haven't the federal government hasn't given the given anybody the green light on the Keystone revival and in allowing the portion of the abandoned pipe that's on our side of the border to tie into the Keystone revival. So I found that interesting, maybe a a card or a negotiating tactic for Kuzma, the Kuzma agreement, but there's 500,000 barrels of oil ready to go if we can get some agreement on that. Definitely I did that episode, and you can see it up here regarding the uh pipeline on the southern approach. That something may have indicated or sent signals out to the media that they're in favor of that approach. Or is this the beginning of another year of long oil energy war, which has been taking place since the Trudeau administration? I don't think it's gonna I don't think that's where we're going. I think Prime Minister Kearney is determined and clearly focused on what needs to be done. He's talking that way and he's gonna do it. If anybody gets in his way, uh he's just you know his background is executive, and not all the time, you know, when when an executive, a high executive or leader of a particular major company like Brookville, someone or a group of people get in the way, he usually deals with those people right away. So if there's anybody within his government that are not towing a line, I think we're gonna see either they're gonna leave or he's gonna do ready a cabinet shuffle. That's what we call here in Canada, a cabinet shuffle. That's when they move people around or get rid of people from their particular jobs and send a message to the rest of the group that it's either my way or the highway. Uh let me know your thoughts and comments regarding this story. I think it's very important, very important to Alberta, very important for the rest of the country. And just let me know what you think and I will reply. Hey everyone, if you enjoy these uh news summaries that I put out every week and you find them informative, please be sure to subscribe and give me a thumbs up. It really helps the channel. You can also catch all my episodes on my podcast up here, and you can find my podcast and YouTube music. Thanks for watching, be safe, and we'll see you on the next one.